Gold shares have bounced of late, aided by U.S. political uncertainty and a bullish long-term backdrop. Indeed, the likelihood of a prolonged period of negative to ultra-low real interest rates is high given startlingly low potential…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Bank profits are unlikely to match those of the broad market if the Fed hikes interest rates and loan demand cools. Sell into strength. Gold shares are looking increasingly attractive, but we will…
Highlights The resilience of EM industrial commodity demand, which is helping to lift inflation and inflation expectations in the U.S., will be tested over the next few months, as markets gear up for a possible oil-production deal…
Highlights Our protector portfolio is a combination of assets that have a low or negative correlation with equities that give investors some downside protection. Replacing cash and/or Treasuries with our protector portfolio in 60-30-…
The volte-face being attempted by OPEC and non-OPEC producers in an attempt to keep oil prices above a pure-competition market-clearing level arises from the dire financial circumstances key states in both camps find themselves. Now…
Gold prices and gold-related equities have been caught in a sharp selloff. The motivation behind our early-August profit-taking stemmed from extremely overheated sentiment at a time when the yellow metal was vulnerable to an…
We put the odds of an oil-production freeze agreement between OPEC and Russian officials next week in Algiers at slightly better than a coin toss.
Fed policy - and, importantly, policy expectations' effect on the broad trade-weighted USD (TWI) - will dominate price evolution over the short term, as markets puzzle out if and when a rate hike is coming this year.
Gold stocks have been pummeled since we recommended booking profits on our overweight position on August 1. While the cyclical backdrop of policy and political uncertainty, rampant debt growth and negative interest rates are bullish for…
A Fed rate hike by December could erode the slowly evolving fundamentals favoring base metals.