Investors are being forced into riskier asset classes by the TINA effect, but the gaping macro disequilibria makes it difficult for investors to see how we move back to equilibrium in a benign way. Monetary policy on its own is…
The lack of inflation makes a Fed rate hike before December unlikely. In the interim, the continued flow of liquidity could sustain the high-risk rally.
With the Fed more sensitive to how its policy affects the global economy, and vice versa, we believe monetary policy will remain accommodative to encourage U.S. and EM growth.
We are recommending profit taking in gold shares after a dramatic surge since our overweight call earlier this year. The long-term outlook for gold remains appealing, given the need for low or even negative real interest rates for a…
It is dangerous to equate recent equity strength with economic vitality, as history shows that liquidity-fueled equity advances favor non-cyclicals over deep cyclicals. Take profits in gold, buy rails and sell industrial machinery.
A collection of 10 important charts to monitor closely through the summer months.
Forecast is diverging from strategy for equities. Intermediate-term positives allow for a blowoff to the upside. But we do not expect the rally to have staying power over a 6-12 month horizon.
Commodity speculation provides liquidity to hedgers, allows price discovery, and offers access to an asset class that typically produces returns that are not correlated with stock or bond returns.
The blowout June nonfarm payrolls report reflects a tightening labor market, consistent with stronger ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing readings. This will take time to impact Fed policy.