Markets will remain stuck in a trading range, driven by two policy feedback loops: the Fed's and China's.

Investors have embraced renewed Fed hawkishness as a vote of economic confidence and confirmation of analysts' rosy earnings forecasts, but the bounce in financials looks unsustainable, outside of REITs. Hang on to gold shares.

Gold will remain well bid over the short term. The surge in demand that pushed prices up by 20% ytd (Chart of the Week) will continue to dominate supply growth.

The next rate hike is unlikely before September, despite the rebound in April retail sales. The dollar could suffer for a time, but the long-term bull market is intact.

Helicopter money is coming, and once deployed, will prove to be much more successful than most people imagine. Stay long Japanese and German inflation swaps. USD/JPY and EUR/USD are ultimately likely to reach 140 and 0.9,…

China's reflation policies have succeeded in reviving iron ore and steel prices, which are up 45.6% and 52.6% from their January lows, along with the profitability of domestic steelmakers.

Saudi oil policy, like its defense policy, will be more aggressive and less predictable, following Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's apparent nullification of a production "freeze" deal at Doha.

A weaker USD resulting from more dovish forward guidance from the Fed, and evidence of continued production declines in non-OPEC and OPEC countries will continue to buoy oil prices.

We upgraded gold shares to overweight in early March, because gold rises in stature as monetary policy loses its efficacy. The spreading global shift to negative deposit rates is creating a significant amount of uncertainty, as the…

These general themes - along with our assessment that markets were overestimating downside price risk and underestimating upside risks arising from supply destruction and geopolitical instability - supported the best-performing…