Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2026.

MacroQuant recommends a strong underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, has become neutral-to-slightly positive on the US dollar, has downgraded gold to neutral and copper to a strong underweight, and is bullish on oil.

The current macro environment is a toxic brew of many of the same vulnerabilities that haunted the global economy in the lead-up to past recessions: Rising oil prices, an unsustainable tech capex boom, elevated equity valuations, excessively high homes prices, and brewing stresses in private credit and other parts of the financial system. While global equities look increasingly oversold in the very near term, they will still finish the year below current levels.

In today’s Strategy Insight, we show why both a quick resolution and a prolonged crisis ultimately point to lower yields.

The gap between PCE and CPI inflation will narrow within the next few months, mostly driven by core PCE inflation converging toward its trimmed mean.

Looking through month-to-month volatility, job growth’s underlying trend is stable and consistent with a flat-to-slightly higher unemployment rate.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2026.

MacroQuant recommends a modest overweight position in equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has downgraded oil to neutral, and is bullish on copper and gold.

Interest rate volatility is very low across developed market fixed income. Investors should maximize the carry in their portfolios to outperform in a low rate vol environment.

We spent last week meeting investors in Switzerland. This Strategy Insight revisits the most prominent topics we discussed, including repatriation fears, SNB intervention, and Dutch pension reform.