MacroQuant is tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold and copper.
Recent Canadian data confirm slowing growth, reinforcing support for government bonds and steepeners. The October CFIB Business Barometer fell to 46.3 from 50.2, indicating contraction and underscoring the risk posed by small…
Our GeoMacro strategists remain overweight equities and bonds for now but warn that markets will soon test their “melt-up” thesis, as the cycle transitions from cash- to leverage-driven growth. The dominant theme of 2025 is not AI,…
Cross-asset volatility fell in recent weeks, with lower rates volatility supporting risk assets. The MOVE index, which tracks implied USD rates volatility, recently dropped to its 20th percentile before rebounding. This decline…
Treasury yields are generally following the pattern of past interest rate cycles, but with a larger term premium keeping the curve steeper than usual.
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
Despite concerns about fiscal sustainability, a rise in term premia, and attacks on central bank independence, monetary policy remains the primary driver of bond markets. In our Q3 Review & Outlook, we update our views and…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2025.
Post-FOMC speeches reveal divisions across the committee, reinforcing long duration as policy remains mildly restrictive. The September dots showed a split, with half of participants expecting at most one 25 bps cut and the rest…
