Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

What’s driving government bond yields, and how do different bond markets impact each other? In today's Strategy Insight, we decompose yield moves into global drivers and idiosyncratic local drivers.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2026.

Egypt’s underlying inflation pressures are much higher than the headline CPI numbers imply. Real interest rates have plunged. As such, domestic bond yields have stayed high for a reason. Steer clear.

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.

Recession risks in the UK are clearly rising. In this Special Report, we unpack why labor market deterioration, falling wage growth, and normalizing inflation support deeper BoE cuts ahead. We then discuss how to position across gilts, the pound, and UK equities.

The 10-year Treasury term premium is now competitive with Baa- and Ba-rated credit spreads. Even without term premium compression, duration carry trades could outperform credit carry trades in a low rate vol environment.

Mortgage spread tightening has run its course. Any further drop in mortgage rates will necessitate lower Treasury yields.

Over the past few months, we have been deploying new market-timing tools aimed at improving the accuracy of our calls. Today’s report highlights our ultra high-frequency Daily Oscillators, which provide daily signals on the near-term direction of the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2026.

From steepening to flattening. As the BoJ continues to tighten in 2026, we show why curve flatteners are finally the right trade.