France finds itself in a unique, thorny situation. Can it heave itself out of it? And what does it mean for investors?
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2024.
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a…
This Strategy Insight presents our view on today’s rate cut by the Bank of England as well as the budget announced by the UK government last week.
The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75…
Our thoughts on the bond market’s reaction to the election and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
The Election Day is finally upon us. No, there is no final “silver bullet” forecast contained in this email. Just our long-term forecast of how the election will, no matter who wins, impact the markets.
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis.…
EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodities. According to our Emerging Markets Strategy colleagues, such a decoupling is unusual. A potential Trump re-…