Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and some upside risks to inflation that could flare up in the months ahead.

This month, our Here, There, And Everywhere chartpack reiterates our main thesis for 2025: the three main narratives driving markets today – fiscal profligacy, trade war, and geopolitical conflict – will peak at some point in 2025. Why does this matter? All three have been tailwinds to US assets, and their peak should help usher in the peak in US outperformance relative to RoW. We conclude with some slides on our bullish Europe thesis.

UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon? 

Thoughts on the increase in bond yields and this morning’s employment data.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025. 

Our thoughts on this afternoon’s Fed decision and the bond market reaction. 

For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.