Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a few trade ideas that arise from the divergences in signals amongst G10 countries.

This Strategy Insight presents our view on today’s rate cut by the Bank of England as well as the budget announced by the UK government last week.

The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75%.

Our thoughts on the bond market’s reaction to the election and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

The Election Day is finally upon us. No, there is no final “silver bullet” forecast contained in this email. Just our long-term forecast of how the election will, no matter who wins, impact the markets.

A reaction to this morning’s employment report and a preview of the potential bond market implications of next week’s US election and FOMC meeting.

The latest Bank of Japan meeting did not alter our high-conviction views of being long the yen and underweight JGBs.