Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend investors go long CE3 domestic bonds, as a deflationary shock in core Europe drives Bund yields and CE3 rates lower. USD-based should go unhedged, while Euro-based investors should hedge…
USD-denominated Emerging Market bonds have been outperforming US corporates for the past year. We don’t think the rally is exhausted yet.
Australia’s NAB survey shows underlying resilience, reinforcing our underweight on ACGBs and the case for AUD flatteners vs. CAD steepeners. The August survey was mixed, with current conditions improving to 7 from 5, while business…
Gold and steepeners remain core trades, supported by structural shifts in markets and policy. Gold broke out of the consolidation range it had been in since April, supported by central-bank buying and heightened policy…
The August employment report showed a modest increase in labor market slack, enough to cement a 25-basis-point rate cut this month.
Turkey’s disinflation trend remains intact, supporting a bullish case for short-term bonds. Headline inflation eased to 33% y/y in August from 33.5% in July. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect further slowing as monetary and…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2025.
Canada’s Q2 GDP contraction underscores a fragile backdrop where growth risks will outweigh inflation, supporting further BoC easing. Real GDP contracted at an annualized 1.6% after expanding 2.2% in Q1, consistent with survey data…
MacroQuant sees downside risks to stocks over a long-term horizon but is not yet saying that we are at imminent risk of an equity bear market.