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Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

CPI Consistent With September Cut

This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Japan Growth Stabilizes, But JGBs Still Exposed on Both Tails
Japan’s Eco Watchers survey suggests growth has troughed, making JGBs vulnerable in both global slowdown and reacceleration scenarios. The July survey showed current conditions ticking up to 45.2 and expectations improving to 47.3. While both remain…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Low Global Vol Keeps BTP-Bund Spread Tight
The BTP-Bund spread has tightened to pre-2010s levels, but with global growth risks we favor Gilts over Bunds and prefer BTPs over credit. While the EURO STOXX 50 remains rangebound since the Liberation Day recovery, European financial stress remains low. The…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The BoE Is Looking In The Rearview Mirror

The BoE is easing, but risks falling behind. Labor and growth cracks are starting to emerge, and the Bank may soon be forced to move more decisively. This report outlines why gilts remain a buy and sterling’s path is diverging vs. USD and EUR.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Robert Timper, Mathieu Savary
Mexico: Monetary Easing Is Not Over
Banxico’s latest rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican domestic bonds. Mexico’s central bank eased policy by another 25 basis points to 7.75%.  Investors should bet on further easing. Inflation will continue falling within the target range…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
Is The Labor Market Slowdown For Real?

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Fed Succession Adds Rates Vol Risk, But Macro Will Drive Yields
While the early resignation of Fed Gov. Kugler opened the door for a politically aligned nominee, yields will ultimately be determined by the economic outlook. Her departure triggered a further intraday DXY drop, as markets reacted to the prospect of a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Stall Speed

Economic activity and hiring cooled significantly in the first half of the year. The most important question for investors is whether this signals an imminent increase in labor market slack.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
MacroQuant Model Update: MacroQuant Flashing Amber (But Not Yet Red)

MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise.

Global Investment Strategy, Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li, Ayaan Sohhel
The Unemployment Rate Will Settle The Debate

The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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