Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
In this Insight, we highlight our strong conviction trades based on the central bank meetings held by the Bank of England, the Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank.
In this note, we reaffirm our underweight position in JGBs and long yen positions given the BoJ’s meeting overnight.
Household data beat in May, but China’s macro story remains fragile, reinforcing our overweight in local government bonds. Traditional supply-side activity decelerated, with industrial production and fixed asset investment both…
For now, measures of labor market utilization (like the unemployment rate) are only gradually weakening. But we know from history that these trends have a habit of quickly accelerating in advance of recession.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2025.
European equities will face a clash of powerful forces this summer. Expect sharp swings and false breaks, creating an ideal terrain for nimble traders but a minefield for buy-and-hold investors seeking steady gains.Within this backdrop,…
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.