A recent slew of macroeconomic data has reassured us that the runway to a recession is longer than many thought. However, that positive realization comes with two caveats. First, the Fed pivot is not imminent, and the magnitude of…
Disinflation coupled with sticky wage growth is likely to result in either a second wave of inflation or layoffs and a recession. In the meantime, market expectations for sales, growth, and margins are overly optimistic and are…
The Republican Party’s odds of winning the 2024 election will benefit, if anything, from state courts’ attempts to exclude President Trump from primary or general election ballots. Higher odds of a change of ruling party will…
Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.
Q3-2023 is expected to mark the end of the earnings recession for the past three quarters, opening the door to positive earnings growth. Whether that would be sustainable or will sputter once the recession settles in as expected in…
More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.
The Equity Analyzer Platform uses a 30-factor model called the BCA Score to help our clients build robust portfolios. Multi-factor models are constructed to avoid the common pitfalls of focusing on one factor dimension, such as…
In June, the rally gained momentum and broadened due to positive economic data, particularly in the housing market. We expect cheaper cyclical sectors and styles to mark a change in leadership as the rally broadens, helped on by…
Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator.…