Highlights Global Growth & Inflation: An increasing number of growth indicators worldwide are tracing out a “v”-shaped pattern from the COVID-19 recession. However, high unemployment and a lack of inflationary pressure…

Dear client, We are sending you our Quarterly Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond. Next week, please join me for a…

Please note that yesterday we published Special Report titled Do Not Overlook China’s Innovation Drive. Please click on it to access it. Today, we publish analysis on Brazil and Ukraine.   Chart I-1Brazilian Share Prices…

Highlights Treasuries: Keep portfolio duration close to benchmark on a 6-12 month horizon, but continue to hold tactical overlay positions that will profit from modestly higher bond yields: Overweight TIPS versus nominal Treasuries,…

Highlights High-Yield: Our analysis of current junk spread levels relative to likely economic outcomes leaves us inclined to maintain our current recommended positioning: Overweight Ba-rated bonds, underweight bonds rated B & below…

Special Report

Highlights Egypt’s balance of payments have deteriorated materially due to both the crash in oil prices and the global pandemic. The country’s foreign funding requirements in 2020 are high and the currency is under…

Highlights The Chinese economy continues to recover, albeit less quickly than the first two months following a re-opening of the economy. The demand side of the Chinese economic recovery in May marginally outpaced the supply side,…

Highlights Chart 1More Stimulus Forthcoming?  Last week we posited that bond yields could move modestly higher during the next couple of months as the US economy re-opens and economic growth recovers. However, any economic…

Highlights Investment Grade Sector Valuation: Our investment grade corporate bond sector valuation models for the US, euro area, UK, Canada and Australia show some common messages, as markets have adjusted to a virus-stricken world.…

Highlights Treasuries: Despite surging issuance, long-dated Treasury yields will move only slightly higher this year, driven by a modest recovery in global demand. There is also a risk that a second wave of COVID infections will send…