Highlights Bear markets occur in phases, and their narrative can mutate. What began as a selloff caused by the coronavirus outbreak could well mutate into an oil crash-led selloff, and then mutate again into a selloff due to policy…
Highlights Uncertainty & Yields: Global bond yields, driven to all-time lows as investors seek safety amid rioting markets, now discount a multi-year period of very weak global growth and inflation. Bond Portfolio Strategy:…
Highlights An analysis on Colombia is available below. If EM share prices hold at current levels, a major rally will likely unfold. If they are unable to hold, a substantial breakdown will likely ensue. The direction of EM US dollar…
Highlights At the current rate of work resumption, March’s PMI should rebound to its “normal range” from February’s historic lows. If so, our simple calculation, using China’s PMI figures and GDP growth in…
Highlights Chart 1Making New Lows While the number of daily new COVID-19 cases is falling in China, the virus is spreading rapidly to the rest of the world. It is now clear that the outbreak will not be contained, though…
Highlights Policy Responses To The Virus: Markets are now pricing in significant monetary policy easing in response to the growth shock from the COVID-19 outbreak and related financial market instability. It is not yet clear, however,…
Highlights Dear Client, This week, we had originally planned to publish a Special Report introducing a framework for modeling and selecting global yield curve trades. In light of the market turbulence of the past few days, however, we…
Highlights Analyses on Asian semis, Argentina and Russia are available on pages 7, 12 and 14, respectively. The most likely trajectory for Chinese growth will be as follows: the initial plunge in business activity will be…
Highlights Chinese policymakers will deliver more growth-supporting measures in the coming months, but Chinese government bond yields have already priced in a much weaker economic slowdown and a more aggressive policy response. While…