Highlights Duration: Incoming data are consistent with our view that global growth is at an inflection point, and will improve during the next few months. As this plays out and recessionary fears fade into the background, we expect the…
On average, fallen angels outperform other types of bonds. But how do they perform during recessions and other periods of financial market stress? Given the Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield Fallen Angel 3% Capped Bond index…
Over the past three decades, US Baa-rated debt – the lowest tranche in investment grade – has doubled from only 20% of total corporate debt to 40%. This coincided with an increase in nonfinancial corporate debt from…
Highlights Prevailing winds are still blowing in favor of the US dollar. Continue shorting a basket of EM currencies versus the greenback. Deflationary forces are gaining momentum in EM/China while inflationary pressures are…
Highlights The mood among investors is shifting from the recessionary gloom of this past summer. Equities worldwide are rallying, buoyed by a combination of dovish monetary policies, tentative signs of bottoming global growth and…
Feature Chart I-1Lebanese Bond Yields Have Surged To Precarious Levels In a May 2018 Special Report, we warned that a devaluation and government default were only a matter of time in Lebanon. The country's sovereign US…
Highlights While the Caixin PMI is pointing to improving economic conditions, other data series still reflect weak growth. China’s business cycle is likely to bottom in Q1 of next year, rather than in Q4. The failure of…
Highlights Chart 1The Fed Must Remain Dovish Many were quick to label last week’s FOMC decision a “hawkish cut”. This is somewhat true in the near-term. The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points while…
Analysis on Mexico and Central Europe is available on pages 6 and 10, respectively. Highlights Deflationary pressures have been intensifying in Malaysia and the central bank will be forced to cut its policy rate. To play this theme,…