Highlights Monetary Policy: Investors should fade the recent increase in expectations of a March rate hike. Still-low inflation and elevated policy uncertainty will keep the Fed on hold until June. Continue to position for a bear-…

Highlights Chart 1Strong Growth & An Easy Fed  More than a month has passed since the Fed's latest rate hike and, at least so far, the economy is displaying no ill effects. While the economic data continue to surprise…

Highlights Duration: Rising political tensions in the U.S. will not offset the cyclical upward momentum in global growth, which is supported by accelerating corporate profits. Bond yields are unlikely to fall much in the near term,…

Special Report

Highlights Argentina's structural reform story keeps getting better and the bull market in the nation's assets has further to go. Further interest rate cuts means a cyclical economic recovery is in the making. The South…

Highlights Chart 1Upside Risks & Uncertainty  The evidence of economic acceleration continues to pile up and we maintain our view that bond yields will be higher than current forwards by the end of 2017. In the near-term,…

Highlights The U.S. dollar will continue to appreciate while the RMB will depreciate further. This is a bad omen for EM risk assets, commodities, and global late cyclical equity sectors. Gold often leads oil and copper prices.…

Special Report

Highlights Dear Clients, The holiday season is upon us, a time that is always filled with traditions. This week, we are starting a tradition of our own with this new "year-ahead" outlook report, focusing on the big ideas and…

Special Report

Highlights Theme 1: Secular Stagnation Vs. Trumponomics. A larger deficit will cause Treasury yields to rise in 2017 and, for at least a while, it will appear as though secular stagnation has been conquered. Theme 2: A Cyclical Sweet…

Highlights Duration: An easing of financial conditions is likely necessary for recent improvements in U.S. economic growth to continue. As such, the uptrend in Treasury yields will pause in the near-term before resuming early next year…

Highlights Chart 1More Upside From Inflation  We moved to below benchmark duration on July 19, when the 10-year Treasury yield was 1.56%. As of last Friday's close, the 10-year Treasury yield was 2.4% and above the fair value…