The near-term (next month or two) market dynamics in EM risk assets remain a coin toss. Beyond that the outlook for EM risk assets remains downbeat. EM financial markets are complacent and there are many potential negative EM/China…
Most financial assets are trading within the confines of the feedback loop between markets and Fed policy. Investors should avoid expensive assets such as spread product, and hold positions with attractive long-term value such as U.S…
Most financial assets are trading within the confines of the feedback loop between markets and Fed policy. Investors should avoid expensive assets such as spread product, and hold positions with attractive long-term value such as U.S…
The balance of risks favors accelerating wages and stable core inflation during the next few months. This will result in a move higher in rate hike expectations, benefitting Treasury curve flatteners.
Gold seems to be leading global share prices. Gold prices have rolled over since March 10. Hence, odds are that the U.S. dollar is about to bottom, and that global and EM stocks, as well as commodities prices, are about to relapse.…
Some tentative signs of life in the global manufacturing data suggest that Treasury yields have some room to move higher in the near term.
We continue to recommend a cautious investment stance, staying at benchmark duration, as the recovery in risk assets looks more like a counter-trend rally than the start of a new bullish run.
We are sending you the Q2 Global Investment Strategy Outlook, which discusses the ten predictions we expect to drive global financial markets throughout the rest of the year.
Several tail risks appear less ominous compared to last month. Nonetheless, the earnings outlook has not improved and the FOMC will turn more hawkish ahead of the June meeting. Stay defensively positioned.