This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2022.

We continue to anticipate that the Fed won’t pause its tightening cycle until Q1 or Q2 of 2023, and current labor market trends certainly give no indication that a Fed pause (or “pivot”) is imminent.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2022.

Highlights Chart 1A Hot Labor Market  The balance of data that’s come out during the past month points to a labor market that is not cooling very quickly. In fact, it is cooling much more slowly than we anticipated.…

Special Report

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Back From The Future: An Investor’s Almanac  Stocks will rally over the next six months as recession risks abate but then begin to swoon as…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week, the US Bond Strategy service is hosting its Quarterly Webcast (August 16 at 10:00 AM EDT, 15:00 PM BST, 16:00 PM CEST). In addition, we are sending this Quarterly Chartpack that provides a recap of our key…

Executive Summary High profile economists Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard have recently cast doubt on the Federal Reserve’s claim that a soft landing is possible for the US economy. We explore the arguments from both sides…

Highlights Chart 1Are Expectations Too Dovish? ​​​ The bond market is now priced for the fed funds rate to peak at 3.44% in January and then head back down to 2.79% by the end of 2023 (Chart 1). We strongly push back against…

Executive Summary Peak Fed Funds?  The bond market is priced for a fed funds rate that will peak in February 2023 at 3.44% before trending down. We survey several interest rate cycle indicators and conclude that the market…

Executive Summary We posit three conjectures about the US economy: Inflation has an easy path back to 4%, but a move to 2% will require a higher unemployment rate. It will be more difficult to raise the unemployment rate than many…