Taiwan’s election will lead to serious Chinese military and economic pressure but not full-scale war. War is a long-term concern. Investors should short TWD-USD.
In this brief Insight we examine the expanding Middle East conflict and update the situation in the Taiwan Strait on the eve of elections. The Houthis are a distraction and China is not likely to invade Taiwan in the near term, but…
The Fed faces a dilemma. Cut rates early to avoid a recession, but at the risk of not slaying wage inflation. Or, not cut rates early to ensure that wage inflation is slayed, but at the risk of a downturn. Faced with such a dilemma,…
The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish…
Following today’s US jobs data release, the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator inched up to 0.18 and is now just a whisker from its recession event-horizon of 0.20.
In Section I, we discuss the implications and potential risks of the Fed’s recent pivot. The near-term implications of the Fed's dovish pivot are likely to continue to be bullish for risky asset prices, and a new high in global stock…
The Republican Party’s odds of winning the 2024 election will benefit, if anything, from state courts’ attempts to exclude President Trump from primary or general election ballots. Higher odds of a change of ruling party will…
Oil prices will rise tactically due to supply risks. Recent developments indicate escalation of the conflict with Iran in the Middle East and confirm our expectation of energy supply disruptions and oil price spikes in the short run…
Our last publication of 2023 is an illustrated guide to our view that the economy will enter a recession around midyear. We expect equities will underperform Treasuries and cash over much of 2024, but we are waiting to turn…