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ISM Signals Further Downward Pressure On Goods Inflation
The ISM PMI sent a pessimistic signal about US manufacturing conditions in June. The headline index dropped 0.9 points to a 3-year low of 46.0 – it eighth consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust line. This is consistent with the S&P Global PMI which fell…
Daily Insights
Relative Valuations And The AI Craze
This chart breaks down the factor exposure of the top performers in the US large cap space relative to the largest 500 stocks in the US to see how the current market leaders compare to history relative to their peers.  The values are shown as deviations from…
Daily Insights
Failed Coup Benefits GCC Oil Producers
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil producers stand the most to gain following the failed coup against the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The biggest beneficiaries will be the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Qatar, and the UAE, all of…
Daily Insights
Interpreting The Message From Inverted Yield Curves
Has the yield curve lost its ability to “predict” recessions? The widely-followed 2-year/10-year US Treasury curve now sits at -100bps, but it has been inverted since April 2022. Investors have seemingly been on “recession watch” ever since, even though the…
Daily Insights
Beware Russian Instability
Our Geopolitical Strategy service cautions investors of Russian instability, which will likely push up the global equity risk premium in the next few months. After some developments during the weekend, Vladimir Putin and his regime are still in power. Some…
Daily Insights
Beware Russian Instability

The Russian mutiny reveals the underlying trend of domestic instability. Russian instability is negative for global stability. The endgame of the war in Ukraine is exacerbating the problem, likely pushing up the equity risk premium.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
So Much For Détente?

Talks of a détente are premature and there is no domestic political basis in China or the US to support a true détente. Investors should not underappreciate global risk, on the basis of a détente, and should avoid Greater China equities in the next 18 months.

Geopolitical Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Energy Outlook: Democracies Run On Oil

We are strategically bullish on the outlook of the energy sector. Domestic and external political constraints asserted themselves, restraining the most negative impulse against this sector by the Biden administration. Go long energy versus cyclicals (ex-tech).

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Have Growth Stocks Overshot?
The 231bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield last year weighed heavily on the relative performance of Growth stocks which lost 22.7% vis-à-vis the Value index in 2022. However, these dynamics have reversed this year with the rally in Growth stocks outpacing…
Daily Insights
Will Global Cyclical Equity Sectors Continue Outperforming?
Once again, global cyclical stocks have recently been outperforming defensive sectors. This comes after the late-2022/early-2023 relative rally in cyclical stocks was cut short by the emergence of bank turmoil in early March. Valuations are providing a…
Daily Insights

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