Once again, global cyclical stocks have recently been outperforming defensive sectors. This comes after the late-2022/early-2023 relative rally in cyclical stocks was cut short by the emergence of bank turmoil in early March.…
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25bps rate hike on Thursday, raising the policy rate to 3.5% — the highest since August 2001. Moreover, the central bank maintained a hawkish bias, signaling…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, geopolitical risk will rise before the Ukraine war is resolved, punishing eastern European emerging market assets on a relative basis. Ukraine’s…
As the major central banks once again mull their policy options, they face a daunting task. They must phase-transition inflation back to imperceptible, without phase-transitioning unemployment to perceptible. This report explains why…
With the 1-year CPI swap rate trading at 2.3%, the market was already priced for a significant drop in inflation heading into yesterday’s May CPI release. The results of the report should only reinforce those expectations…
In response to the first-ever federal indictment of a former President, investors should focus on the state of the economy and not on Trump’s legal trouble. They should also use the current market rally to stock up on protection, as…
Results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations sent a positive signal about short-term inflation expectations. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations dropped by 0.3 percentage point to a two-year low of…
Investors and policymakers went on high alert after two large-cap banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, failed in a 48-hour span in early March. Google searches for “banking crisis” exploded in the two full…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Dutch market will be the main European beneficiary of expanding spending on AI. The crucial factor constraining the deployment and expansion of AI is…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, an analysis of the AI rally’s complexity suggests that the rally is nearing a potential reversal point. Can the AI euphoria continue to drive the S&P 500 higher…