There is a 50:50 chance of experiencing a major deflationary shock in the next two years, and an even greater likelihood on a longer timeframe. The good news is that several assets provide a good insurance against this risk, and that…
As the Fed meets today, we explain what it did wrong in 1970, 1974, and 1980 that prevented inflation from being exorcised, and the lessons for 2023-24. Plus, we identify a currency cross that could rebound in the next year.
Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.
Inflation is hot, but inflation expectations are not. We explain the answer to this apparent puzzle and discuss the investment implications. Plus we identify two commodities that are at imminent risk of reversal.
We Introduce our new macro models for the Eurozone’s equity earnings, which include sectoral forecasts. Find out what they predict for the next six-to-nine months.
Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to…
No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second…
Through February and March, the number of US ‘job losers’ surged by almost half a million. Constituting the largest two-month increase in Americans who have lost their job since the depth of the pandemic. Unless we see a big drop in…
Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…