Is the European banking system hiding nasty surprises? How will the recent stress affect European growth and the ECB’s policy outlook?

Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…

It is a big mistake to think that rate cuts or lower bond yields will ease credit conditions. Quite the contrary. After an aggressive tightening of monetary policy, the first rate cuts always coincide with much tighter credit…

The Fed lifted rates 25 bps yesterday while also signaling that the tightening cycle is near its peak. We discuss the short-run and long-run implications for Treasury yields.

US financial instability reinforces our bearish investment outlook by weighing on economic growth and corporate earnings while also increasing US policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

Special Report

Some quick takes from today’s FOMC meeting.

Special Report

The Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Europe to ramp up its defense spending. This will greatly benefit its defense industry, especially if defense coordination across the EU increases. 

Depending on market volatility during the next few trading days, the Fed will either lift rates by 25 bps next week or pause its tightening cycle. Either way, the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak but rate cuts won’t be coming…

Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.

Our fixed income strategists recommend positioning for a bear-flattening of the US Treasury curve.