Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey,…
The pandemic gave older Americans and Brits a massive carrot and stick to retire early. The carrot being a surge in wealth, the stick being a risk to health. In other major economies, the carrots and sticks were smaller or non-…
Our best calls of the year were long defensives over cyclicals, short Russia and emerging Europe, long aerospace/defense, short Greater China, and long Latin America. Our worst call of the year was long cyber security stocks.
The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and…
Chinese social unrest will be suppressed first, then the government will relax policies to stabilize the economy. We are reducing our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $85/bbl as a result of the short-term negative news, but maintaining our $…