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Executive Summary Biden Taps China-Bashing Consensus   House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan reflects one of our emerging views in 2022: the Biden administration’s willingness to take foreign policy risks…
Executive Summary Biden Can Take Risks Ahead Of Midterms  News reports suggest House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will travel to Taiwan and meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in the coming days. China has promised military…
Executive Summary Italy’s right-wing alliance, led by Brothers of Italy, will likely outperform in  the upcoming election. The new government will prioritize the economy, posing a risk to the EU’s united front…
Special Report US services spending collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and remains significantly below the level that would have prevailed had the pandemic not occurred. This raises the question of whether services consumption will ever return to…
Special Report Executive Summary Iran Reaches Nuclear Breakout  The next geopolitical crisis will stem from the Middle East. The US, Russia, and China are striving for greater influence there and Iran’s nuclear quest is reaching a…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment   Over the past week we have been visiting clients along the US west coast. In this report we hit some of the highlights from the most important and frequently asked questions. Xi…
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator  A new equilibrium between NATO, which now includes Sweden and Finland, and Russia needs to be reestablished before geopolitical risks in Europe subside. Russia aims to inflict a…
Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas  Major geopolitical shocks tend to coincide with bear markets, so the market is getting closer to pricing this year’s bad news. But investors are not out of the woods…
Special Report Executive Summary Autocracy Hurts Productivity  Over the next six-to-18 months, the Xi Jinping administration will “let 100 flowers bloom” – i.e., relax a range of government policies to secure China’…
Executive Summary Return Of The 'Pocketbook Voter'  President Biden’s pledge to fight inflation ahead of the midterm elections got a boost with the Gulf Arab states pledging to increase oil production in July and August…