Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.
The new Labour government will have flexibility to respond to macro shocks, which is positive for the UK in general, namely GBP-EUR, and also gilts in absolute terms. But over the long run, tax hikes will likely surprise to the…
We explain how to distinguish between ‘good’, ‘bad’ and ‘ugly’ unemployment, why bad unemployment is a much better gauge of the jobs market than headline unemployment, and what this means for the tactical positioning in bonds and…
The bond market should sell off and drag stocks down on higher odds of a single-party sweep, policy uncertainty, unorthodox Trump presidency, aggressive tariffs, large tax cuts, large budget deficits, labor shortages, a fired Fed…
In Section I, we examine some concerning signs of US economic weakness that emerged in June. We also discuss portfolio positioning in the face of falling interest rates and cross-check our recommended US equity overweight in the face…
The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural…
