A window of risk for the Indian bourse remains. While Modi’s chances of winning the elections are reasonable, he and his party – the Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP – may not win an outright majority in the lower…
Highlights Foreign investors have been rushing into Indian equities in anticipation of a Modi win. While Modi’s chances are reasonable, he may not win an outright majority. Keep tactically underweighting Indian stocks for now.…
Foreign investors have been rushing into Indian equities in anticipation of a win by current Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the upcoming general elections. As a result, Indian stocks have been outperforming the EM benchmark.…
The attack was theatrical but the subsequent rally-around-the-flag effect gave Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a badly needed popular boost. The market rallied on the back of Modi’s higher chances of reelection…
Highlights So what? EM elections bring opportunities as well as risks. Why? Emerging market equities will benefit as long as China’s stimulus does not fizzle. Modi is on track to win India’s election –…
Highlights Please note that analysis on India is published below. Even if the recent upturn in the Chinese credit impulse is sustained, there will likely still be a six- to nine-month lag between the impulse’s trough and the…
Indian share prices are weak and are underperforming the emerging markets benchmark in U.S. dollar terms (Chart II-1, top panel). Small cap stocks are in a full-fledged bear market (Chart II-1, bottom panel). The latest earnings season…
The first concern is the unemployment rate. Even the official unemployment rate is rising despite the fast clip of economic growth and the pro-growth reforms. A leaked government statistical report suggests that unemployment has…
India inherited liberal democracy and rule of law from the British. Its own revolutionary leaders built on this foundation, providing relative stability despite its patchwork of languages, ethnicities, and castes. Democratic…