The target set for the “Make in India” initiative is unrealistic. In fact, the manufacturing sector’s contribution to GDP has slightly come down in recent years. Economists blame the demonetization drive and the…
As the world’s second most populous country with an economy projected to grow over 7% annually, India’s potential as a commodity consumer is massive. However, years of distortionary and unfriendly policies have held back the…
Highlights So What? Our best and worst calls of 2018 cast light on our methodology and 2019 forecasts. Why? Our clients took us to task for violating our own methodology on the Iranian oil sanctions. Sticking to our guns would…
Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue.…
Highlights Heightening geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, higher U.S. bond yields, tightening U.S. dollar liquidity and weakening EM/China growth - all combined - constitute a bitter cocktail for EM. Barring a…
We are downgrading our allocation to Indian stocks from overweight to underweight within an EM-dedicated equity portfolio (Chart II-1). Rising stress in the country's non-bank finance companies - the recent default of finance…
We are downgrading our allocation to Indian stocks from overweight to underweight within an EM-dedicated equity portfolio (Chart II-1). Rising stress in the country's non-bank finance companies - the recent default of finance company…
This week we are publishing Part 1 of an overview of the cyclical profiles of emerging market (EM) economies. This all-in-charts presentation illustrates the business cycle conditions of the largest EMs. The aim of this report is to…