Highlights Domino dynamics continue escalating within the EM universe confirming that a major bear market is underway. Several global cyclical market segments have recently experienced technical breakdowns. This confirms that global…

This week we revisit our long Indian / short Chinese banks trade that we initiated on January 17.1   The trade is up only 5.7% since inception (Chart II-1), and with more monetary policy easing occurring in China and the recent…

Highlights Major and drawn-out financial market downturns usually occur in phases and often resemble a domino effect. There have been a number of noteworthy divergences in the EM space of late. They are probably part of a domino…

Our analysis is often focused on China, commodities prices and Asia's business cycle. The key points of these discussions are applicable to the majority of EM countries and their financial markets. Yet, there are some countries that…

Special Report

Highlights We are upgrading our allocation to Indian stocks from neutral to overweight within EM equity portfolios. India's public banks are much further along in their necessary adjustment process, and the credit cycle downturn…

Please note that in addition to today's abbreviated Weekly Bulletin, we are also publishing a Special Report on Argentina. Feature Regarding recent financial market dynamics, it appears that the high-yielding EM currencies are…

Highlights Recommendation Allocation  The global growth outlook remains strong, with corporate earnings likely to beat expectations for a couple more quarters. Inflation and Fed policy are key to asset allocation. We expect…

Highlights Social unrest and populism are on a secular rise in the U.S.; However, the "Breitbart clique" has suffered a critical defeat in the current Administration; This will make headway for upcoming tax legislation and…

Highlights Beware of asset managers' and leveraged funds' large net long positions in EM currencies. Overextended net long positions in EM and commodities currencies signify overbought conditions in EM risk assets in general…

Highlights Unsurprisingly, OPEC 2.0's leadership agreed on the need to extend the coalition's 1.8mm b/d production-cutting agreement to end-March 2018. Leaders of the coalition - the energy ministers of the Kingdom of Saudi…