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Industrials

For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.

Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that Europe’s time to shine will soon come back.

Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that Europe’s time to shine will soon come back.

Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?

Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in. More optimism is warranted as…
Our US Equity Strategy colleagues expect Q3 earnings to be strong enough to fuel the soft-landing narrative. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to be 4.0% year-over-year, with sales growth of 4.0% too. Yet, with average surprises of 5.6% for…
The European Commission voted to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). The announcement follows previous tariffs imposed on Chinese EV imports back in June. This new round of economic sanctions will only have a minor…
We highlighted last week that while the Politburo policy announcements are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China, they nevertheless administered a shot of adrenaline to investor sentiment. Chinese equities, China-plays and other…
A US recession remains our base case over a cyclical investment horizon. We expect the ongoing labor market deterioration to eventually tip the economy into a recession. We therefore continue to expect the disinflationary forces to dominate the US economy…
Preliminary estimates suggest that activity continued to slow across DM economies in September. Manufacturing PMIs contracted at a faster pace in the US, Eurozone, Germany, France and Australia, and grew at a slower pace in the UK. Services PMIs continued…