Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026
This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30…
The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2025.
Indian stocks have further downside in absolute terms as profits disappoint. Their underperformance versus the EM equity benchmark, however, is late, which warrants a shift from underweight to neutral allocation.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2025.
The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% and announced QT will end December 1, signaling modest easing but no December cut commitment. The decision matched expectations, with dovish (Gov. Miran, for a 50 bps cut) and hawkish (Pres…