Inflation/Deflation
The ISM PMI sent a pessimistic signal about US manufacturing conditions in June. The headline index dropped 0.9 points to a 3-year low of 46.0 – it eighth consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust line. This is consistent with the S&P Global PMI which fell…
Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.
This report reviews our key calls for major currencies, in light of recent data releases.
In their just-published update of US housing market conditions, our colleagues at the BCA Bank Credit Analyst focus on whether May’s strong showing in new home starts and sales in May – up 21% and 12%, respectively – is a head fake or the beginning of a…
Our US Bond Strategy service responds to recent data releases which showed that real economic growth and the labor market are surprisingly resilient, while inflation pressures continued to decline. The 10-year Treasury yield broke above its top-end trading…
A look at how US bond yields responded to yesterday’s strong economic data and this morning’s soft inflation print.
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
Our Counterpoint service argues that it is not enough that inflation stabilizes at 3 percent for inflation expectations to be anchored and central banks must make inflation undershoot 2 percent for some time to prevent a repeat of the 1970s. The team…
The preliminary inflation prints for June in the major euro area economies highlight a growing divergence in inflation outcomes. There was good news: headline CPI inflation in Italy fell to 6.7% in June from 8.0% in May, while Spanish headline inflation fell…
Since the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) released its latest monetary policy minutes on June 27th, the Brazilian real has depreciated for three days in a row. Will the BRL resume its strengthening trajectory, or is the currency set to relapse in the coming…