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Inflation/Deflation

China’s Uphill Battle Against Deflation

Beijing’s supply-side push faces steeper hurdles than in 2016. With limited demand support and tighter constraints on cutting capacity, today’s reforms are unlikely to pack the same punch.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
UK CPI Runs Hot, But Disinflation Is Still In Sight
June UK CPI surprised to the upside, but weakening leading indicators point to disinflation ahead. Stay overweight Gilts. Headline inflation accelerated to 3.6% y/y from 3.4%, and core rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. Services inflation held at 4.7%, also above…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
One Big Beautiful Basket

Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven, uncertain environment. 

US Political Strategy, Equity Analyzer, US Equity Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Guy Russell
BoC Cuts Pushed To Fall As Inflation Rebounds
Canada’s inflation re-acceleration makes a BoC July cut unlikely, but softening growth and tight financial conditions keep easing on the table. June headline inflation rose to 1.9% y/y from 1.7%, roughly in line with expectations. Core trim and median…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US: Tariff Pressures Build, But Broad Inflation Remains Contained
June CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with tariff passthrough building in goods but broader inflation pressures likely to remain contained. Headline inflation came in slightly above expectations at 2.7% y/y (0.3% m/m), while core matched estimates…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Trade War Finally Hits CPI

We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Restrictive Policy, Falling Inflation Support India Bond Longs
With inflation at a six-year low and restrictive policy weighing on growth, our EM strategists remain long Indian bonds and underweight equities. Headline CPI fell to 2.1% y/y, largely driven by lower food prices, bringing inflation to the lower bound of the…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
Too Early To Sound The All Clear

We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Still Moving Sideways

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Decoding China’s Deflation

This report analyzes China’s persistent deflation, which is rooted in supply-side forces. Consumption support will be slow and incremental, keeping deflationary pressures elevated for the next 6–12 months.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima

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