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Inflation/Deflation

One Big Beautiful Basket

Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven, uncertain environment. 

US Political Strategy, Equity Analyzer, US Equity Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Guy Russell
US: Tariff Pressures Build, But Broad Inflation Remains Contained
June CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with tariff passthrough building in goods but broader inflation pressures likely to remain contained. Headline inflation came in slightly above expectations at 2.7% y/y (0.3% m/m), while core matched estimates…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
BoC Cuts Pushed To Fall As Inflation Rebounds
Canada’s inflation re-acceleration makes a BoC July cut unlikely, but softening growth and tight financial conditions keep easing on the table. June headline inflation rose to 1.9% y/y from 1.7%, roughly in line with expectations. Core trim and median…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Trade War Finally Hits CPI

We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Restrictive Policy, Falling Inflation Support India Bond Longs
With inflation at a six-year low and restrictive policy weighing on growth, our EM strategists remain long Indian bonds and underweight equities. Headline CPI fell to 2.1% y/y, largely driven by lower food prices, bringing inflation to the lower bound of the…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
Too Early To Sound The All Clear

We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Still Moving Sideways

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Decoding China’s Deflation

This report analyzes China’s persistent deflation, which is rooted in supply-side forces. Consumption support will be slow and incremental, keeping deflationary pressures elevated for the next 6–12 months.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
ISM Confirms Sluggish Growth And Fading Inflation Impulse
The June ISM points to sluggish US manufacturing and reinforces long duration positioning amid peaking price pressures. The index rose modestly to 49.0 from 48.5 in May, with the rebound driven by slightly higher production and slower supplier deliveries due…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Euro Strength And Subdued Inflation Justify Further ECB Cuts
June Eurozone inflation data and soft growth backdrop support further ECB easing and reinforce the case for long European bond exposure. Flash HICP inflation ticked up to 2.0% y/y from 1.9%, while core inflation held steady at 2.3%, both in line with…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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