Inflation/Deflation
The November UK CPI, in line with estimates, hit an eight-month high, accelerating from 2.3% y/y to 2.6%. Core and services inflation were also strong at 3.5% (vs. 3.3% in October) and 5.0% (flat from October), respectively. Services inflation…
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25 bps to a 4.25%-4.5% range, as expected. However, it was a “hawkish cut”; the FOMC signaled a slower pace of easing ahead. The statement signalled less urgency, saying the “extent and timing” for further cuts…
Our thoughts on this afternoon’s Fed decision and the bond market reaction.
The November Canadian CPI was slightly below estimates, declining to 1.9% y/y from 2.0%, below the BoC’s 2% target but within the 1%-to-3% range. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, were flat at 2.6% and 2.7% respectively after revisions. CPI…
European sentiment data was mixed. The December Ifo Business Climate index for Germany missed estimates and was down 1 point to 84.7 from November. The decrease came from its expectations component, which fell to 84.4 from 87.2. Meanwhile, the December ZEW…
November retail sales were roughly in line with expectations, with headline growth at 0.7% m/m vs. 0.4% in October. Vehicle sales were solid. Excluding auto and gas, sales rose a more modest 0.2% m/m, below expectations. The control group grew 0.4% m/m after…
Our Emerging Markets, China, and Commodities strategy teams published their 2025 joint outlook. Our colleagues remain bullish on the US dollar for now but see rising odds of the Trump administration actively pursuing greenback devaluation. To avoid steep…
Chinese activity indicators were mixed in November, reflecting the dynamic of a resilient supply side coupled with weak demand. Industrial production growth was roughly flat at 5.4% y/y vs. 5.3% in October, while retail sales slowed down to 3.0% y/y from…
The post-COVID US recovery was different from previous cycles. Despite an ebullient economy, US consumers and firms have just not been feeling it, as reflected by the depressed signals from so-called soft, survey-based indicators. The main reason behind this…
For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.