Inflation/Deflation
The October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey was mixed, showing weak headline data but steadier underlying components. The headline index fell to -12.8 from 23.2, the lowest level since April 2025. Underlying details were not as dire: shipments moderated…
UK labor data weakened in August and September, reinforcing downside inflation risks and supporting overweight Gilts with 2s10s steepeners. Payrolls fell by 10k in September, while job vacancies continued to slide to cyclical lows as unemployment reached…
The October Empire Manufacturing survey beat estimates, but weak investment and hiring intentions temper its positive signal. The index rose to 10.7 from -8.7, indicating modest activity growth. New orders ticked up, and shipments increased after plunging…
The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed estimates, falling to 98.8 from 100.8. The decrease was driven by expectations, as fewer small businesses expect the economy to improve or real sales to rise. Firms also reported inventories as too high,…
Persistent wage pressures in the US and the UK stem from similar structural worker shortfalls, according to BCA’s Counterpoint Strategy. In both economies, headline labor data mask hidden deficits created by early retirements in the US and long-term illness…
September CPI releases in Brazil and Mexico reinforce a divergent inflation and policy outlook that supports an overweight stance in Mexican local bonds and currency relative to Brazilian assets. Brazil’s headline CPI at 5.2% was slightly higher than in…
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold and other commodities, and much more.
Expect greater currency interventions and negative policy rates from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), reinforcing a neutral stance on CHF and Swiss sovereign debt over the next 12 months. In recent joint statement on foreign exchange practices, the…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2025.
The September ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations at 49.1, but details confirm weak momentum and tariff-driven pressures. The headline improved from 48.7 in August, its second consecutive monthly gain, but the uptick came mainly from longer supplier…