Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Inflation/Deflation

BCA’s 2025 Outlook: Walking A Tightrope
Our 2025 Outlook was just published. We revisit this year’s calls and discuss what we think is ahead for the global economy and markets for the next 12 months and beyond. The recent US election has significantly shifted our economic and market outlook. A…
Daily Insights
Treasuries Trace A Line In The Sand For Equities
After fueling the USD rally, price action from the past few weeks suggests Treasury yields might limit US equities’ upside. Following the post-COVID inflation, stocks and bond yields were negatively correlated, reflecting markets' inflation concerns.…
Daily Insights
Hot UK CPI Won’t Cool BoE Easing Intentions
UK inflation was hotter than expected in October, rising to 0.6% m/m from being flat in September. Core inflation also ticked up, printing at 3.3% y/y vs. 3.2% a month prior. Services inflation remains elevated at 5.0% y/y.   We do not expect…
Daily Insights
Canadian CPI Will Allow BoC To Stay The Course
Canadian inflation was slightly hotter than expected in October, re-accelerating to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% in September. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, re-accelerated to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, and CPI-common rebounded to 2.2%. CPI…
Daily Insights
Assessing Our Equity Views
As talks of a market “meltup” abound, we used last Friday’s edition of our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting to assess our asset allocation recommendations. Our House View has been underweight equities since March, a recommendation reinforced by two of our…
Daily Insights
US: Expect Disinflation To Continue
US CPI inflation for October printed in line with expectations and was unchanged from September, with headline at 0.2% month-over-month and core at 0.3%. Headline re-accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4% on an annual basis, and core stayed steady at 3.3%. This…
Daily Insights
A Good Time To Short TIPS

We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI release, concluding that TIPS breakeven inflation rates have room to fall.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
f_image_20241112_181103.PNG
Tracking The Trump Trade

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
f_image_20241111_174013.PNG
Trump's Historic Comeback: What Catches Our Eye
Special Report

Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unilateral, with US assets outperforming initially.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
f_image_20241111_174326.PNG
Trump’s Historic Comeback: What Catches Our Eye
Special Report

Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unilateral, with US assets outperforming initially.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics