Inflation/Deflation
It didn't take long for markets to utterly shrug off the surprise rise in July's unemployment rate. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed higher than it was the day before the July Employment Situation report was released. The Russell 2000 gained 5.2% since…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy and US Bond Strategy services, the drivers of the structural downtrend in real interest rates include: demographic trends (declining fertility rates, longer life expectancy and a rising dependency…
Preliminary estimates suggest that although consumers’ perceptions of current economic conditions unexpectedly deteriorated in August, they are becoming increasingly optimistic about the future. The University of Michigan current conditions gauge dropped…
What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?
In this report, we gauge the reasons behind the persistently weak Norwegian krone, despite what appears to be benign domestic economic conditions.
Headline and core CPI eased for the fourth consecutive month in July, ticking down 0.1 ppt to 2.9% and 3.2% y/y, respectively. The 3-month and 6-month moving averages continued to edge lower as a result, with the former now reaching a three-and-half-year low…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly embarked on an easing pivot in August, cutting the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 5.25%. The central bank also signaled further rate cuts by lowering its rate benchmark forecast to 4.92% by December 2024 and 3.85%…
Goods prices have normalized following the pandemic binge on goods spending and have contributed to easing price pressures overall. A large drop in vehicle prices largely drove the decrease in July’s CPI and we have questioned the sustainability of an…
US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measure remained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fell 0.2% m/m. Our US Bond strategists have…
The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August, in line with expectations. However, it lifted its trimmed-mean inflation forecast to 3.5% y/y in Q4 2024 and to 2.9% by Q4 2025 (up from 3.4% and 2.8% in its May forecast, respectively). Inflation…