Inflation/Deflation
Canadian inflation stayed contained in August, reinforcing expectations for BoC easing and supporting overweight bonds and CAD steepeners. Headline CPI edged up to 1.9% y/y from 1.7% on gasoline prices, while CPI ex-gasoline slowed to 2.4% and CPI ex-mortgage…
China’s policy-driven constraints prevent the “destruction” part of the creative destruction process. Instead, they entrench overcapacity, deflation, and poor profitability. We are reluctant to chase the rally in Chinese stocks in absolute terms.
August US CPI was in line with expectations, reinforcing the case for Fed easing and a long-duration stance. Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), while core held at 0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y). Core goods inflation ticked up to 1.5% y/y from 1.1%, while services…
High US inflation is being driven by tariffs, not domestic inflationary pressure. This argues for Fed easing and a bull-steepening of the Treasury curve.
August PPI inflation cooled, reinforcing the case for Fed easing and long duration with steepeners. Headline PPI fell 0.1% m/m, bringing the annual rate down to 2.6% after July’s 0.7% gain. Core PPI (ex-food, energy, and trade) rose 0.3% m/m (2.8% y/y).…
China’s August inflation data confirm entrenched deflation, reinforcing our overweight in onshore bonds and a tactical long in onshore small- and mid-caps versus large caps ahead of potential stimulus. Producer prices declined 2.9% y/y, easing from…
Core Europe’s industrial sector will relapse in the coming months due to US tariffs and a strong euro. Investors can play the imminent deflationary shock by being long Central European bonds. They should, however, hedge the currency risk vis-à-vis the euro.
The August NFIB survey shows a fragile US economy with disinflationary signals and weak employment, supporting our defensive stance. The Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8 from 100.3, a six-month high, though still below December 2024 levels. Much of…
Australia’s NAB survey shows underlying resilience, reinforcing our underweight on ACGBs and the case for AUD flatteners vs. CAD steepeners. The August survey was mixed, with current conditions improving to 7 from 5, while business confidence softened to 4…
Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey points to stabilization; JGBs remain unattractive and the yen’s near-term setup is less favorable versus USD. The August survey modestly beat expectations, with the current component rising to 46.7 from 45.2 and expectations…