Inflation/Deflation
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the Norges Bank will be one of the last central banks to cut rates. The Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and Norges Bank all held policy meetings on Thursday. The SNB continued its dovish…
In a widely expected move, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% in June. Although MPC members voted seven-to-two in favor of not cutting rates, a tweak in communication noting that the decision was “finely balanced”, hinted at the…
On the surface, UK inflation appears to be on the right track. The May CPI release came in broadly within expectations. Headline inflation eased from 2.3%y/y to 2.0%y/y – directly on the BoE’s target for the first time since July 2021. Core CPI (excluding…
US assets and the US dollar should remain resilient relative to global peers over the next 12 months as policy uncertainty, election risk, and geopolitical risk reach a climax. After that, investors should reassess their regional allocation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 4.35% at its policy meeting on Tuesday, in line with market expectations. Australia’s monthly measure of headline inflation came in at 3.6% in April, still considerably above the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3%…
In this insight, we update our thinking on the recent BoJ move in terms of positioning for the yen and JGB yields.
The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.
The BoE had to deal with a stagflationary headache in the second half of 2023. Inflation was stickier and growth was weaker in the UK than in many of its DM peers. This trend turned around earlier this year with a late-cycle growth reacceleration. The UK…
In a largely expected move, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0-0.1% in June. It maintained the pace of bond buying at JPY 6tr per month but signaled it would lay out a plan to reduce its balance sheet next month, without offering any…
Goods prices have been normalizing following the pandemic binge on goods spending. The May CPI release indicated that durable goods and nondurable goods prices both continued to contract. Investors and policymakers have thus turned their attention to other…