Inflation/Deflation
UK retail sales volumes were flat in March, a decrease from the 0.1% growth registered in February and disappointing expectations of a 0.3% m/m increase. The details were mixed, with automotive fuel and non-food stores sales volumes…
By the end of 2023, the “soft landing” scenario became the dominant narrative in financial markets. Following the regional banking scare in March of last year, market participants slowly came around to the view that the economy was entering a goldilocks…
European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?
Japan’s national CPI inflation unexpectedly cooled in March, falling to 2.7% y/y versus consensus estimates it would remain at 2.8% y/y. Notably, measures of underlying inflation such as core CPI (ex-fresh food) and “core-core” CPI (ex-fresh food and energy)…
UK inflation came in hotter than expected in March. Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 0.6% m/m – above expectations of a slowdown to 0.4% m/m. Moreover, while the headline and core measures both decelerated on an annual basis, they exceeded consensus…
Developments in US multi-family housing are particularly relevant for the inflation outlook since they inform the future direction of shelter inflation – an important component of CPI inflation. Indeed, the Zillow multi-family rent index leads moves in the…
In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and defense.
Advanced estimates for retail sales in the US grew by 0.7% m/m in March, down from an upwardly revised 0.9% m/m in February, but meaningfully outperforming expectations of 0.3% m/m. Retail sales ex autos also surprised to the upside, coming in at 1.1% m/m…
Headline inflation in Sweden came in at 4.1% in March. Lower food prices as well as lower inflation for recreation and culture were the main contributors to the drop. The biggest positive contributor was housing due to higher mortgage costs. The CPIF…