Inflation/Deflation
The US manufacturing sector appears to be enjoying a revival. As we highlighted yesterday, the ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly returned to growth in March and the S&P Global US manufacturing PMI remains in expansion territory. Yet, service sector…
The number of job openings in the US in February (8.76 million) was little changed from the downwardly revised 8.75 million in January, keeping the job openings rate stable at 5.3%. Similarly, the hiring rate was little changed at 3.7% in February, from 3.6%…
The Dallas Fed released its trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for February on Friday. The trimmed mean PCE is a measure of underlying inflation which excludes the top 31% and the bottom 25% of the PCE basket and then uses a weighted average of the remaining…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2024.
Friday’s PCE report showed a resilient US economy. Real personal consumption increased by 0.4% m/m in February, beating expectations of 0.1% m/m and remaining above its pre-pandemic trend. Both services and goods contributed positively. Real personal…
The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of this year on Monday. While there are some early signs of stabilization, overall demand continues to be weak. The indicator for future sales growth remains well below its…
We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.
In this Insight, we discuss our rationale for a short sterling position.
The message from Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech on Wednesday could not be clearer: there’s still no rush. While market participants as well as the FOMC are still pricing in three rate cuts this year, the recent hotter-than-anticipated inflation data…
Chinese industrial profit growth surged to 10.2% y/y in the first two months of the year after having contracted by 2.3% in 2023. Does this rebound in profits suggest that investors should become more optimistic about the Chinese economy and risk assets? A…