Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Inflation/Deflation

f_image_20240216_141346.PNG
It’s A Good Time To Buy Inflation Insurance

Could a second wave of global inflation be underway? The latest inflation prints in the US and UK showed upside surprises, while there is evidence of increased price pressures in global manufacturing. Combined with the improvements seen in economic sentiment measures and leading economic indicators in the US and Europe, and potential upside risks to oil prices, we see a strong case for owning more inflation protection in global bond portfolios. Inflation-linked bonds look attractive in this environment, especially in the US.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Treasury Yields Rise On Hot US PPI
The hotter-than-anticipated US PPI report for January prompted a selloff in Treasuries on Friday. The monthly and annual changes in both the headline as well as the core measures of final demand PPI came in above expectations. Core PPI’s 0.5% m/m increase…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240215_202020.PNG
How Low Can CHF Fall?

In this Insight, we speculate on the outlook for the CHF.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
US Retail Sales Slump: Signal Or Noise?
The US retail sales report for January delivered a disappointing message about consumer spending. The 0.8% m/m drop in overall retail sales was worse than expectations of a 0.2% m/m decline and marked the most severe monthly contraction since last March. The…
Daily Insights
More Signs Of Overheating?
The first two regional fed manufacturing surveys for February delivered strong upside surprises. The New York Fed’s Empire Index surged from -43.7 to -2.4, unwinding its January slump. Similarly, the Philly Fed current activity index jumped by 15.8 points to…
Daily Insights
Tame Headline Inflation... For Now
Our Commodity & Energy colleagues see oil markets balanced in the short run, which keeps their Brent price forecasts at $95/bbl and $105/bbl for 2024 and 2025.  That said, they note the odds are increasing demand growth could surprise to the…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240215_140737.PNG
Decoupling And A Litmus Test

Over the next six months, the deterioration in non-US growth will occur earlier and be more pronounced than in the US. This expectation reinforces our confidence to bet on the strength of the US dollar. As usual, the flip side of the US dollar strength will be weakness in EM risk assets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Improving UK Growth Momentum Could Delay A BoE Pivot
The UK inflation release for January came in slightly softer than anticipated. Both headline and core CPI were unchanged on year-over-year basis at 4.0% and 5.1%, respectively – below expectations of slight accelerations. The 0.6% m/m decline in the headline…
Daily Insights
No Inflationary Pressures From Grain Prices
Prices of agricultural commodities have come under intensified downward pressure this year. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices have fallen by 8.6%, 8.3%, and 4.9% respectively so far this year. Multiple factors are behind the selloff. First, ag prices…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240214_141010.PNG
Bonds Are Looking More Attractive

Comments on yesterday’s CPI report and yield moves.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics