Inflation/Deflation
The major question facing EM investors in 2024 is whether or not EM will cross the Rubicon. The path to a soft landing in the US remains elusive. The recent improvement in global manufacturing/trade will likely prove to be a mid-cycle bounce rather than the beginning of a cyclical recovery.
Our US bond team’s thoughts on this afternoon’s FOMC meeting and yesterday’s CPI release.
The November US CPI release came in broadly in line with consensus expectations on Tuesday. On an annual basis, headline CPI inflation eased from 3.2% y/y to 3.1% y/y while core inflation was unchanged at 4.0% y/y. On a monthly basis, both headline and core…
China’s CPI and PPI releases delivered a negative signal about the domestic economy. The rate of contraction in the CPI index accelerated to -0.5% y/y in November, the sharpest rate of decline in 3 years and disappointing expectations it would remain at -0.2%…
Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep rates unchanged last week. …
Results of the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations corroborate the signal from the University of Michigan’s preliminary results that inflation expectations are receding. The 0.2 percentage point drop in one-year ahead inflation…
Our US fixed income team’s key investment views for 2024.
Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in the August survey and the lowest…
The global investment community has become well aware of many problems facing the Chinese economy including real estate excesses, policymakers’ reluctance to stimulate, as well as elevated debt levels among local governments, enterprises, and consumers. …