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Inflation/Deflation

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Inflation: A Story Of Eras

Section II of this month’s Bank Credit Analyst report is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, which we are making available to all clients. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist in 2021 after a long and illustrious career, expresses his personal views about the long-run outlook for inflation. He argues that the multi-decade disinflationary era is over, which will bring significant challenges for both policymakers and investors.

BCA Special Reports
US Economy Delivers Strong Growth In Q3
The US Q3 GDP release delivered a positive signal about the US economy. Economic growth accelerated from 2.1% q/q to 4.9% q/q on an annualized basis – beating expectations of 4.5%. A significant acceleration in consumption growth (from 0.8% to 4.0%) accounted…
Daily Insights
German Business Sentiment Inches Up In October
Results of the October German IFO survey corroborate the positive signal from the latest ZEW survey. The headline Business Climate Index increased for the first time since April, rising from 85.8 to 86.9, above expectations of 86.0. This was driven by…
Daily Insights
China's Property Market Adjustment Is Not Over
According to BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service, the property market has not cleared. Property market indicators suggest that China's real estate sector is still struggling to stabilize. Home sales and starts have entered their third year of…
Daily Insights
US Bonds: Short-Term Risks, Long-Term Value
The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly moved above 5% earlier this week before dipping back down. While we can’t rule out another jump back above 5% in the coming weeks, the recent bond selloff has created a good deal of long-run value in US Treasuries. In…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Sentiment: A Self-Defeating Upswing?
The European Commission's preliminary release for Consumer Confidence painted a murky picture for consumer sentiment on Monday. The headline print of -17.9 was largely unchanged from the previous month's print of -17.8, but beat expectations of -18.3.…
Daily Insights
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The Big Bank Beige Book, October 2023

The biggest banks report that consumer credit card delinquencies still have yet to get back to pre-COVID levels and other credit performance indicators, leading and lagging, remain solid. There is still a great deal of cash sloshing around the banking system, though consumption has clearly slowed. We reiterate our view that a recession is coming, but not before the year is out.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
A Phase Transition Is Coming
According to BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service, the global economy will stay buoyant over the next few quarters but will then sour as the lagged effects of higher interest rates and tighter bank lending standards work their way through the…
Daily Insights
New Record Decline In German Producer Prices
German producer prices declined by a new record 14.7% y/y in September, broadly in line with expectations of -14.1% y/y and a steeper pace of contraction than August's -12.6% y/y. Meanwhile, the monthly rate of change returned to contraction (-0.2% m/m)…
Daily Insights
Keep a Neutral Global Duration Stance
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service is maintaining a tactical neutral duration stance to begin Q4. The team believes the risk/reward on US Treasuries has improved substantially after latest backup in yields, with the market now discounting…
Daily Insights

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