Inflation/Deflation
As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 5% on Wednesday. In particular, the central bank highlighted that domestic economic growth deteriorated. Indeed, last week’s GDP release showed the Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted…
The AUD was the worst performing currency on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate target unchanged at 4.1% for the third consecutive month. In particular, outgoing Governor Philip Lowe underscored that the uncertain economic outlook…
In a Tuesday morning television interview, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled that the Fed will not lift rates when it meets later this month. Specifically, Waller echoed language used by Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole conference by saying that recent…
Friday’s US employment report suggests that the softening of the labor market is continuing at a steady pace. Although nonfarm payroll employment in June and July was revised down by 110 thousand, the 187 thousand increase in August came in above expectations…
US bond investment takeaways from this week’s PCE and employment releases.
A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter monetary policy is slowly being felt. Government bonds look increasingly attractive as a safe haven.
In Part 2 of this series, we prescribe the treatment needed to produce a recovery for the ailing Chinese economy. Authorities will only panic and unleash “irrigation-style” stimulus if the unemployment rate rises sharply, or a financial crisis unravels in onshore markets. This is not yet the case.
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, current monetary policy settings at the Fed and ECB risk pushing commodity and energy prices lower. Lower prices and higher rates will suppress capex and set the stage for higher inflation…
Eurozone headline inflation surprised to the upside in August, confirming the signal from the preliminary German and Spanish releases. The year-on-year gauge was unchanged at 5.3% – surprising expectations of a deceleration to 5.1%. Similarly, the 0.6%…
The US Personal Income and Outlays report shows consumption remained resilient in July. Although personal income growth decelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.2% m/m, spending accelerated from an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m to 0.8% m/m – above expectations of 0.7% m/m.…