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Inflation/Deflation

When (And How) To Say When

Inspired by a client’s questions, we examine the rationale behind the implementation of the trailing stop governing our near-term asset allocation recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
The Problem With European Earnings

European real GDP growth is stabilizing, so why would European equities continue to trade sideways for the remainder of the year? The answer lies with nominal growth and its impact on earnings.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Chinese Credit Growth Disappoints In July
Chinese credit and money data fell significantly below expectations in July. The CNY 0.53 trillion increase in aggregate social financing marks a significant slowdown from CNY 4.22 trillion in June and came in significantly below expectations of CNY 1.10…
Daily Insights
Rising Gasoline Prices Pose Upside Risk To Inflation Expectations
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey shows US households’ 1-year ahead inflation expectations unexpectedly ticked down from 3.4% to 3.3% in August, surprising consensus estimates of an increase to 3.5%. Similarly,…
Daily Insights
Demand-Driven Inflationary Pressures Remain Relatively Elevated
While the July US CPI release provided a positive signal that the disinflationary trend remains intact, a key question going forward is how much more scope is there for this process to run. One way to answer this question is by assessing the progress in…
Daily Insights
Is The Easy Part Of The Disinflation Process Over?
Thursday’s US CPI release showed that the disinflation trend remains intact with the monthly print remaining soft at 0.2% m/m, slightly lower than expected. The SPY initially rallied on the downside inflation surprise but quickly reversed its gains…
Daily Insights
Waddington’s Landscape, Many Worlds, And The Folly Of Economic Forecasting

Investors should think probabilistically about the economy and financial markets. In the face of non-linear effects, the range of possible outcomes can be very large. A systematic application of Bayes’ rule can help improve decision-making.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Mind The Gaps

Numerous divergences have opened up between global risk assets and global business cycle variables. These gaps are unsustainable, and odds are that the recoupling will occur to the downside with risk assets selling off.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
US Core CPI Inflation: Steady In July
As expected, the US CPI release shows the monthly headline and core inflation gauges were both unchanged at 0.2% m/m in July. Notably, annualized monthly core inflation fell below 2% for the second consecutive month. Similarly, the annual change in core CPI…
Daily Insights
Disinflation Trend Intact

Some thoughts on this morning’s inflation number and implications for Treasury yields and TIPS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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