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Inflation/Deflation

US Credit Spreads Are Expensive
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service cautions against turning bullish on corporate bonds. Corporate bonds have delivered strong excess returns versus duration-matched Treasuries during the past two months. Yet the team’s fair value models, based on…
Daily Insights
US Labor Market: Resilient But Cooling
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by less than anticipated in July, rising by 187 thousand versus expectations of 200 thousand. In addition, the June increase was revised down from 209 thousand to 185 thousand. Similarly, average weekly hours worked…
Daily Insights
What Ails China Is Not What Most Investors Think

China’s extremely high savings rate is the real culprit behind its current economic woes. The authorities have been slow to stimulate the economy, and the risks of “Japanification” have increased. For now, the fact that China is exporting deflation is not such a bad thing. However, if global recession risks were to flare up again, a lethargic Chinese economy would be a cause for concern. Chinese stocks are quite cheap but lack a clear catalyst to move higher. Favor EM markets where earnings and sales estimates have been moving up lately.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
It Is Time To Fade Strength In The Swiss Franc

In this insight, we assess the prospect of the Swiss franc over the next six months.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
BoE: Persistent Inflationary Pressures Starting To Crystalize
As expected, the Bank of England delivered another 25 basis point rate increase at its Thursday meeting, lifting the policy rate to 5.25%. Going forward, Bailey – not unlike his counterparts at the Fed and ECB – highlighted that the MPC will be…
Daily Insights
ADP Sends Positive Signal On US Employment
The ADP Jobs Report delivered a better-than-anticipated signal about the US labor market on Wednesday. The 324 thousand increase in private employment in July beat expectations of a 190 thousand rise and marks the second highest reading in a year following…
Daily Insights
Is The RBA Done With Rate Hikes?
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time to assess the impact of” the 4 percentage…
Daily Insights
Monthly Portfolio Update: Slower Inflation, Then Slower Growth

History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Falling Inflation Could Sow The Seeds Of Its Own Demise
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Consumption and real income growth are highly correlated. If inflation continues to fall, real wages will rise further. If that…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Growth Improves, Core Inflation Sticky
The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In particular, Ireland (+3.3%) and Lithuania,…
Daily Insights

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