Inflation
August inflation remained contained, reinforcing our view that markets are pricing too much BoC tightening and supporting Canadian government bonds relative to US Treasuries. Headline CPI was in line with estimates at 3.0% y/y, unchanged from July and at the…
Indian inflation remains contained, while a stronger external backdrop and reaccelerating domestic demand support overweight positions in Indian equities and local-currency bonds. Headline CPI edged up to 4.4% in August but remained within the RBI’s target…
The August CPI report was slightly hotter than expected and guarantees a Fed hike on Wednesday; but there is still no evidence of broadening inflation pressures or second-round effects. Headline CPI was in line with consensus at 0.4% m/m, leaving the annual…
August’s 0.3% increase in core CPI breaks inflation’s 3-month downtrend and is likely hot enough for the Fed to hike rates when it meets next week.
The August PPI report showed a renewed cost-push inflation impulse, but there is still little evidence of second-round effects. Headline PPI for final demand rose 0.4% m/m, in line with estimates and up from an upwardly revised 0.1% in July, lifting the…
Mexico’s August headline CPI edged up to 3.3%, but remains comfortably within Banxico’s target range. While services inflation continues to prove sticky, the broader inflation backdrop remains benign, reducing odds of Banxico tightening more than is priced in…
Sweden’s August inflation miss reverses July's core spike, strengthening the case for fading Riksbank tightening. CPIF held at 0.7% y/y, below the 0.9% consensus, while CPIF excluding energy eased from 0.6% to 0.5%, undershooting the 0.7% consensus and…
The August NFIB survey weakened, with softer hiring signals reinforcing that the labor market is not overheating or adding to inflation. The Small Business Optimism Index fell more than expected to 98.7, driven by weaker expectations. The report reversed much…
Indonesian headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.2%, moving closer to Bank Indonesia’s upper tolerance bound. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect inflation to remain elevated as higher food and energy import costs combine with the government’s continued…
Underlying US inflation remains sticky, with a broad composite measure holding about 0.5 percentage points above the level consistent with the Fed’s price stability target. Those who claim that inflation has been somewhat sticky as of late are not imagining…