Executive Summary Investors face a dilemma. The faster that inflation comes down, the better it will be for valuations via a stronger rally in the bond price. But if a collapse in inflation requires a sharp deceleration in growth, the…
Executive Summary Markets Priced For A Restrictive Level Of Australian Rates The neutral interest rate in Australia is lower than in past cycles, for several reasons: low potential growth, weak productivity, high household…
Next Thursday May 26, we will hold the BCA Debate – High Inflation: Here To Stay,Or Soon In The Rear-View Mirror? – a Webcast in which I will debate my colleague, Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist, Bob Ryan on the…
Executive Summary The Fed, Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia all hiked rates last week. The BoE, however, signaled a note of caution on future UK growth, given soaring energy prices and plunging consumer and business…
Executive Summary The Fed offered more explicit near-term forward rate guidance at its meeting last week. This guidance will reduce yield volatility at the front-end of the curve during the next few months. We expect the Fed to…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will be presenting a webcast titled ‘The 5 Big Mispricings In The Markets Right Now, And How To Profit From Them’. I do hope you can join. Executive Summary Just as the railway…
Highlights Chart 1Past Peak Inflation The Fed is all set to deliver a 50 basis point rate hike when it meets this week and with inflation still well above target Chair Powell will be keen to re-affirm the Fed’s…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Second Fastest Hiking Cycle Ever? Can the Fed achieve a soft landing, bringing inflation back to its 2% target without causing growth to…