Highlights We do not view October's equity downdraft as a signal to further trim risk assets to underweight. Nonetheless, stocks have not yet fallen enough to justify buying either. The economic divergence between the U.S. and the…
Highlights Chart 1Second Half Rebound The leveling-off of bullish sentiment toward the dollar and the perception of fading political risk have caused spread product to rally hard since the end of June. Indeed, corporate bonds…
Highlights Chart 1Wage Growth Playing Catch-Up To Curve Last Friday's employment report confirmed that the U.S. economy remained on a solid footing through August, even as leading indicators outside of the U.S. have weakened.…
Highlights Monetary Policy: Investors should not place much importance on current estimates of NAIRU or the neutral fed funds rate. The Fed will continue to lift rates at a pace of 25 bps per quarter until the economic recovery is…
Highlights Duration: The market is only priced for a fed funds rate of 2.83% by the end of 2019. This is well below the range of 3.25% to 3.5% that will prevail if the Fed sticks to its current 25 basis points per quarter rate hike…
Highlights Chart 1Yield Curve Suggests GDP Growth Has Peaked Last month we learned that the U.S. economy grew 4.1% in the second quarter, the fastest pace since 2014. The gap between year-over-year nominal GDP growth and the…
Dear Client, Geopolitical analysis is a fundamental part of the investment process. My colleague, and BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Marko Papic will introduce a one-day specialized course - Geopolitics & Investing - to…
Highlights Chart 1Risks To The Bond Bear Market Two weeks ago we flagged that large net short positioning and elevated growth expectations left the Treasury market primed to benefit from any disturbance in the economic outlook.…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we review all of the individual trades in our Tactical Overlay portfolio. These are positions that are intended to complement our strategic Model Bond Portfolio, typically with shorter holding periods…
Highlights 0 To 3 Months: Extended net short positioning and the recent moderation in economic data suggest that Treasury yields are ripe for a near-term pullback. Investors who are able should consider tactically buying bonds on a 0-3…